On August 14, Zhejiang Jinggong Integrated Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jinggong Technology") released a record form of investor relations activities. From August 12-13, Jinggong Technology received research from 162 institutions, and conducted exchanges on the company's recent business development. This article summarizes and introduces the parts that involve the carbon fiber field and are of concern in the industry.
Regarding the current state of the carbon fiber industry: The carbon fiber industry is a basic and strategic emerging industry encouraged by the state, representing the direction of the new round of technological revolution and industrial change. It is a key field for cultivating new kinetic energy and obtaining new competitive advantages in the future. In recent years, the state and local governments have introduced a number of industrial policies to support the development of the carbon fiber industry, providing a good policy environment for its development. The company pointed out that although the total demand for carbon fiber in China in 2023 slightly decreased compared to 2022, with the rapid development of traditional and emerging downstream application fields such as sports and leisure, wind power, aerospace, military, carbon-carbon composite materials, and pressure vessels, China's carbon fiber market is still expected to maintain a relatively fast growth rate.
In terms of the potential scale of carbon fiber equipment: Jinggong Technology also cited the data of 400,000 tons during the research and pointed out that according to the calculation of about 3-4 production lines needed for 10,000 tons of carbon fiber production capacity, it is conservatively estimated that the downstream enterprises' new demand for carbon fiber equipment is 120-160 lines; according to the company's historical market share of 50%, the company is expected to have about 60-80 potential carbon fiber production line equipment orders in the next 3-5 years.
Regarding the price of carbon fiber equipment: For a ten-thousand-ton carbon fiber project, from the original silk to carbonization to form a ten-thousand-ton carbon fiber, the investment is about 1.3-1.5 billion (excluding land costs), of which the proportion of original silk and carbon fiber equipment is about 80%, and the corresponding equipment value is about 1-1.2 billion yuan. At present, the selling price of the company's carbon fiber production line is mainly based on the customer's configuration pricing. The standard configuration selling price of a wide 3-meter line is 165 million to 200 million yuan, which can produce more than 3,000 tons of carbon fiber per year; the standard configuration selling price of a small line with a width of less than 2 meters is 120 million to 150 million yuan, which can produce 300 to 1,500 tons of carbon fiber per year.
Regarding the impact of the decline in carbon fiber prices on the enthusiasm of manufacturers to expand production: The company pointed out that the carbon fiber industry is a strategic industry of the country. As a new material, it is widely used in civilian and military fields and has strong irreplaceability. The downstream demand space is broad, but the current original silk output cannot meet the growing market demand, which leads to the carbon fiber price still being at a relatively high level. Moreover, the downstream application end still needs time for verification and penetration. There is a lot of room for carbon fiber downstream in the fields of wind power blades replacing glass fiber materials, pressure vessels, aerospace, automobiles, ships, etc., but it takes a certain verification cycle from carbon fiber to the application end, and the penetration rate has not yet increased. In addition, in December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference listed the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry, which has a trillion-level market scale and is expected to become a new growth point for China's economic development. In terms of the future development of the company's carbon fiber industry: In 2024, the company will focus on the construction of the core upstream and downstream industrial chain of carbon fiber, implement the "three-in-one" 331 strategy of carbon fiber industry through multi-party linkage, and actively explore the composite material industry. In the field of composite material equipment, the company has established a carbon material equipment division and started the preparation work of the carbon material application division. It has signed strategic cooperation agreements with customers in the downstream application fields such as ships, and in the future, the company will also focus on the low-altitude economy field and carry out the manufacturing of composite material equipment.