The global carbon fiber market will maintain steady growth in 2024. The industry remains cautious due to factors such as high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, persistent inflation, and supply chain issues. Weak U.S. demand for carbon fiber used in aerospace, wind power and sporting goods, with lower demand in the aerospace sector due to production problems with Boeing's 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner aircraft; However, thanks to steady aircraft deliveries from Airbus and Chinese commercial aircraft such as COMAC, the demand for carbon fiber in the global aerospace sector is growing.
The global competitive landscape is changing dramatically, and in recent years China has become the world's largest consumer and producer of carbon fiber. According to Lucintel, a professional market analyst in the United States, China will account for more than 65% of global production capacity by 2030 (the glass fiber market has achieved this goal). In 2010, China's carbon fiber production capacity was almost negligible, and now it has reached about 45 percent of global capacity.
Ten years ago, companies from Japan, Europe, and the United States, such as Toray, Teijin, Zoltec, Hershey, Mitsubishi, and SGL dominated the global carbon fiber market. Today, Japan's Toray leads by capacity, while two Chinese companies, Jilin Chemical Fiber Group and Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Co., take second and third place respectively.
Overall, global carbon fiber demand will reach $3.5 billion in 2024. Lucintel expects global demand for carbon fiber to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 10% per year from 2024 to 2030, driven by growth in pressure vessels, wind turbines, commercial aircraft, automotive and other markets.
Emerging markets such as air taxis, hydrogen storage and fuel cells will help drive future growth in carbon fiber. The urban air mobility market, including electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) air taxis, will increase the use of carbon fiber in structural and interior components. As the demand for hydrogen-powered vehicles grows, the demand for carbon fiber in hydrogen storage tanks, especially Type IV tanks, will also increase.
Although the market growth prospects are optimistic, the price of carbon fiber is still a major obstacle to its adoption in the automotive, consumer and industrial sectors.
These industries expect a unit price of $4- $6 / lb, and some Chinese suppliers plan to sell carbon fibers in this price range, allowing them to penetrate new applications with low-cost carbon fibers. This has created problems for carbon fibre suppliers in North America, Europe and Japan, as they cannot compete on cost with Chinese suppliers and struggle to maintain profitability.
Many suppliers are losing market share to Chinese companies in non-aerospace applications. 2024 European supplier SGL announces its intention to sell its carbon fiber business. Carbon fiber is expected to face fierce price competition in the coming years, and the price of carbon fiber will fall in many applications to protect local businesses. With the increase of low-altitude economic policies and commercialization, carbon fiber raw fibers and carbon fiber production enterprises are expected to benefit, such as Zhongfu Shenying, Guangwei Composite materials, Zhongjian Technology, Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical fiber and so on. In addition to price pressures, carbon fiber recycling and sustainability still have certain challenges.
Nevertheless, hybrid composites, recycling technologies and automated production will continue to enhance the attractiveness of carbon fibers. With its superior strength-to-weight ratio and durability, carbon fiber will remain a key material shaping the future of aerospace, transportation, renewable energy and high-performance consumer products.